How to create software, what predicts the future?

How to create software, what predicts the future?

This program doesn't predict the future. It calculates probabilities, what is the synonym for things what measured in percent. It will calculate the relationships with the variables and that means that it would not predict the future. It gives the vision or model or tip, what would be the next action of the object, what is under the observation.

This kind of computer program bases the statistics. In this program, history is collecting similar cases, what want to predict, and those cases would store in the database. Then the database used to calculate the probability of the cases A and B. That means that the database consists the cases A and B, and those can be used to calculate the probability  ((A/B*100) or in the opposite case( B/A*100)) of those opportunities.

If we are making the database of the political elections the database is easy to make. There are only two possibilities, that the thing would be done or it will be denied, and that thing would cause the variables of the computer program and it's the database are easy to make.

And the data is easy to get for that kind of program, what mission is to calculate the two variables. But the thing is that the program would tell only the percents of a certain type of voting. In this kind of case, the database would need specific data of the cases, which are made in similar cases before. And that means that collecting the data is the problem.

But if we would want to make a database of the movement of some animal, we can use the turning direction as the variable. In this case, collecting the variable, but the problem is that there are very many variables in this kind of database. There are many types of turnings, what animal can make. There are gentle curves and steep turnings, and the speed, what animal used has the mean if we want to make the databases of that kind of thing.

So if we want to make a precise calculation we need precise data of the object, what behaviors we want to predict. The behavior of a thinking organism is the thing what makes all prediction very difficult if they do not consist only probabilities of the poker hands and other kinds of stable things. Or the makers of the probability calculations must start to think, that the people who give the playing cards for the calculation demonstrations are honest.

Probability is not exact information. It just helps to predict some things, by calculating the measured in percent change, that the animal would turn to some direct or some card is taken from the pack of cards? In the most common pack of cards is 52 cards. So if we want to calculate the possibility that the card, what rises from the pack is an ace, we must just say that probability for that case is 1/52*100=1.92307692308 (c. 1,92%)

Probability doesn't take in the count the thing, that somebody could manipulate the variable. This means that the person can take all the aces from the pack of cards. Or that somebody has been trained the animal turn in a certain way. This can destroy the calculations because of the data, what is stored in the database, what the program uses is somehow manipulated.

But when we are creating the probability of the turning direction of the animals, we must follow those objects very intensively. And when we are creating the trusted database of the turning direction of the animal, we must follow the turns in certain situations tens of thousands of times, and that helps to make the database, what the computer program can use for calculating the probability of the turning direction.

By using modern technology like GPS collar, which would also send the speed of an animal,  we can collect the database of the turning directions in certain situations. And then if there are connected two very small cameras the algorithm can find out in which situation the animal, what is under the observations makes some movement, the system, and human operators can find out are some movements reserved for some certain situations like escaping or attacking. And this thing would help to create the behavior model of some animals like Leopards or Tasmanian Devils.