How statistics and numbers are telling lies

How statistics and numbers are telling lies

In the beginning, I must say that words and numbers are telling lies, people are telling lies. Big numbers in statistics are a good and very confessing way to tell people, that most of them are behind some decision. And if most of the people are supporting something, the resistance is unnecessary. Who would resist things, what is benefiting the entire area like some new factories, but I will return to that thing later. The information what is delivered could be lies, but they can also be a little bit twisted, which means that the information would deliver in the form that 30% of people are supporting some decision, even if 70% was against that thing.

So as I have written many times before the most effective version for making statistics look like the real thing is to choose the sample that way, that it supports our interests or opinions. This means that we can choose persons for interviewing who are using the products, what we represent. This kind of things are probably some cases done by tobacco industries. The persons, who make interviews are choosing only smokers for the poll, where is "researched" people attitude about smoking. This is the best way to manipulate politics. If 80% of people are smoking, why there should limit that thing?

This is the key element in the manipulation of statistics. Its mission is to confess political leaders that most of the people are supporting some things, and that's why people should keep their mouth shut about things, what are a little bit embarrassing like the smoking disturbs people, who are not smokers. This is one thing, what we can use as an example of the use of statistics in the political field. One of the purposes of those statistics is just rolling the other opinions and researchers.

When we are thinking about the influence of the numbers and ethical marketing, we are normally facing situations, where some merchandise is marketed by using term price is only 4,95€, and that thing is basing the element that 4,95 looks like better than some prize, what is 5 or some other square of numbers. This thing is normally used marketing method. But how the numbers are used in statistics. One version is to say, that 60% of people, who are answering for questions have some kind of opinions, and at the same time is used the big numbers, that there were 261 000 persons, who have interviewed during research.

And there is no other information, like how the selection is done? Who were those 261 000 persons, who were selected for that sample? Big numbers are confessing thing in the public texts, the thing is that big numbers are meant for falling people, who are a different kind of opinions about things. Statistics and Gallup-polls are a fascinating combination when people are trying to influence politics and their decisions.

When we are thinking about one of the best examples when the politics are tried to confess, that some decision is really good are the cases, where the people are confessed, that they should support the building of the new factory. The thing what is told is that the project brings 10 000 new workplaces for the area, and that is a very impressive way to tell things. But one thing is forgotten to tell, and that is the type of jobs.

And actually, one other thing is also forgotten and that is are those workplaces going to hands of local people? That kind of things is forgotten to tell, that what kind of education is needed in those jobs, and also that people can send job applications form everywhere from the country is sometimes forgotten to tell. So this kind of things is normal weapons from marketing things.

The change of the worldview and how attitudes influence science and work of scientist

The change of the worldview and how attitudes influence science and work of scientist 

In the real-life, we must learn and grow to use authority and other kinds of things. Here we must say, that if people are not considered things carefully, we might decide what is far from the good, reasonable and even against mind. This is the major topics of the Game theory.

The thing that the individual would want always maximize their benefits, would cause that the way of using the power is against the benefits of regular people. And when powerful people are driving them benefits that would bring another thing in the front of our Eyes. That thing concerns about the people like Wilhelm Reichs and his "orgone box", as well as nuclear weapons.

The thing is that everything, what is offered must not buy, and that thing should teach in childhood, that it should not learn in adulthood. We have the right to use our mind and brains in that kind of things. And in the same way, we must realize that the way to see things is changing. In the early 20th century the attitudes were that human being is the master of nature.

Thoughts about Chernobyl, Fukushima, and tsunami

Here we must realize, that things like Fukushima accident have brought in front of the eyes of the people one little thing. Billions of dollars are spent in nuclear safety, but there is not an operating warning system against tsunami even in Japan. And the construction of those systems is not a very expensive operation.

Those systems can also use to collect data from the deep sea animals and nuclear submarines if we would connect the defense aspect to that warning equipment, what can be equipped also with low-light cameras, what can detect the mud clouds, as well as the movements of fishes. And microphones that can detect the sounds, what is coming from some graves and volcanic eruptions from the undersea volcanoes. But they can also detect things like submarines.

One of the most tragic thing in the Fukushima accident is that Japan is one of the nations, what could benefit the geothermal energy in large scale because volcanic heat is near the surface of that island.  And the area of Japan is similar to Iceland, and I wonder, why Japan has not benefited the geothermal energy in the same large scale as Iceland has been benefited.

And that was a thing, what ruled the way to think. In that time people believed things like occult very often, and even learned and civilized people took apart in medium rituals. And in that time there was nothing wrong with those things. But then we are forgetting that our knowledge of the world and universe has been grown, and that thing has brought new kind of threats in front of our eyes.

 The case of Chernobyl opened people's eyes for the thing, that even billions of men couldn't control the destroyed nuclear reactor. And then the safety systems were getting better, but then the tsunami destroyed another nuclear power plant, and that means that even the best safety systems cannot protect those power plants against earthquakes.

Those things brought human beings back to Earth and in the case of Fukushima, the warning system would warn the crew, that the reactor should shut down. And what that system could be. The line of buoys, where would be the pressure detector and GPS, which will tell the location of the buoy,

A pressure detector would be connected to cable, what goes to deep, and if that system detects that the cable is moving there could be Tsunami. The buoys can float freely, and they can send information about the sea current, and the GPS would locate the buoy, what can also collect data of the sea temperature and other things, what is interesting.

But of course, the pressure wall could travel in the bottom of the Ocean, and in that case, the pressure detector must be on the ocean floor. The thing is that the detector buoy can be connected to the floor sensor, what can operate as an anchor. The sensor could be quite small, and it can be equipped also with cameras and microphones as well as the seismic sensors.

Those systems can collect also data from deep-sea creatures and volcanic actions and smaller earthquakes from the floor of the ocean. The idea is to collect the data from the earthquakes what doesn't create tsunamis. And that collected data can be used for statistic, what can use to create formulas, what are calculating, how many smaller earthquakes happen before the tsunami is forming.

And those algorithms can also detect, how the type of small earthquakes like would they send more S-waves than P-waves, before the big earthquakes? And if we are thinking the use of similar systems to detect earthquakes, what are influenced to dry land, the collected data can network with other kinds of data, like how the behavior of animals is changing before the earthquake is starting.

Here we must remember that those seismic waves are causing the sound to the air. If we think that the seismic waves are causing a certain type of sound on the air before the destructive earthquake begin, that thing can cause changes in the animal's behavior. Maybe connecting data that is collected from seismic sensors to data, what is collected from the cameras can be used to make sharper predictions.

And even the behavior of animals don't change, that seismic data can be used along with the satellites, what is observing the form of waves by using radars. The changing form of the waves would happen because the type of seismic waves below the ocean floor is changing. Those systems are installed on existing satellites. The radar metering would work also over dry land and the pressure waves, what the earthquakes are causing might also be visible for lidar and radar systems. So this might make predictions of the earthquakes better. And those phenomena are destructive.

How to make artificial intelligence, and why this kind of things are so hard to create in practice.

(Wikipedia)

How to make artificial intelligence, and why this kind of things are so hard to create in practice. 

Even the best artificial intelligence solution is only the large database, where are lots of actions recorded. And when the artificial intelligence needs to do something new, the new action must be programmed by a human operator. The making of the database would take an extremely long time if we want to create a sophisticated database, where are lots of answers in multiple problems. And making those solutions is very hard to create because every single action needs to program separately. When we are thinking about a chess computer, that program would just calculate an extremely large number of movements on the chessboard.

The thing is that on the chessboard is a limited number of possible movements and the computer must just calculate them all. That makes it effective. And then the programmer must find out, what is the most effective first movement and program that movement to the program. Then it can calculate every single movement and counter movement, what the opponent can make. And of course, the terms like "mate" and the strategic object of the game must be programmed.

This is the problem to create artificial intelligence. The thing that every each action must record to the database separately is taking time. The thing with this kind of artificial intelligence is that the creation of this kind of systems is similar work with making statistics. 

Statistics is an effective tool for finding out things like the political opinions of some group. The tools for statistical analysis are simple. Only thing, what is needed is Excel or some other similar program. But collecting the data to those sheets is the thing, what takes most of the work. The same thing is with the robot, which uses artificial intelligence. 

Every single movement must record to that robot separately, and of course, there must be found some connection with the command and some action. Let's take one simple example of that thing. If the programmer wants to teach commands like "take me a newspaper". The thing seems a very easy process. But when the programmer wants to make that thing, every part of the command must teach separately. 

When the actions for the command is described the creator must describe, what is the newspaper, where it can be found, and what to do if the newspaper is not found from that particular place? The thing is that if this part of the program, what is called " the error correction" is not made, the program can be locked or stoned because the event handler cannot find matches between the input, what is taken from sensors and the action, what is stored in a database. 

The teaching of the computer of the robot must happen by using the same method what is used with children, and the operator would use the command to console, and then walk with the robot to the place, and then make what should be done. And remember that "get" is the first part of the command. 

Then the next command would be the object, what must be taken. And then the action, what must be done after that. But if the robot would not find the newspaper, it can report that thing to the controller, and if the controller would say, look it from the table. 

This kind of command means that robot would search the table, what is in kitchen and if it would not still find it, that machine would go to the living room and then it would systematically search those things from every room and every table. The thing is that the order of those rooms and the layout of the house has been programmed in the memory of the robot. 

If we think that somewhere in Universe the robots, what are equipped with artificial intelligence would start to create a new civilization, we would think that maybe they would act like ants or wasps. They would create spacecraft, which also operates as the autonomous factor, what can create other robots. 

This particular unit will have the same role with the ant queen, and it would create a new base on the planet, what it can use as the same way as ants use their nest in nature. In some vision, the robot civilization would start to create city-looking structures when they are spreading across the universe. The purpose of the city would be to act as a trap for organic civilizations. The thing what computers need is the mind of the living organisms. The problem with the computer is that they are not able to create any abstractions. So they don't have imagination at all.

About behavior sciences

About behavior sciences

Behavior sciences or sharper to say cognitive behavioral sciences are one version of the psychoanalysis. The thing is that when the person is telling something, the observer follows the body language like pushing hands to ham, or rising voice to find out the thing, what is sensitive for the customer. In modern research, the researcher can use many technological tools for creating the profile.

One of those methods is using the sensors, what are collecting data from the blood pressure and central nervous system, to find out what kind of things are making the person nervous. But there are also many other methods to find out if a person has troubles with other people. One is of course statistics, and that method is a really good way to find out if the person, who is in some institute or prison has troubles with guards or other staff.

That thing is that the system collects data about things, how many times guard forgets to turn the clasp on the locked position when the prisoner is in the cell? Or how many times the director of the prison would accept or deny the holiday when prisoner would ask about it?  

The number of denies and accepted asks is comparing with the averages, what that person, who has made similar crimes would get. And that tells something about the relationship with that institute and prisoner. The statistics are telling us things, what we don't want to tell other people.

It tells how many time we would crash with car, or how many times the law enforcement is visiting in inmates home. Statistics are telling things like our lifestyle to other people. Statistics are telling if we would order food to our home, and it tells also if we would not order things like pizza. Maybe that would not tell things to normal people, but what if the person ever orders things like pizza to home?

The researcher would ask about why somebody ever orders pizza and the other thing what might be interesting is if the person takes a taxi, but drives to wrong address, and nobody seems with that inmate. What is the reason for that? Is there something, what that person wants to hide? Or what would you like inmate, who is always eating at a different restaurant? Is there some reason for that? The idea of the profile is to map that kind of things and find out reasons, why some person acts some way. And those things are very interesting to think when some interesting people are tracked from society.

The meaningless thing might have meaning

The meaningless thing might have meaning

The first in this text is taken in the old city in Tallinn, Estonia, and as you see, there seems to be something wrong, and the reason why I took this picture, is that the wooden house is in the very bad condition. So why the city authorities would not order to fix that house is interesting. The thing is that this kind of places is really expensive places to live, and why somebody would leave the house in that condition.

The other houses seem very good repaired and kept, and the thing is, why this house has gone in so bad condition? I think that the taxes should pay anyway, even if the house is not in use, but maybe there is some reason, why the owner doesn't care about that house, what locates in the historical city area.

The Gauss curve in the houses

The second image is portraying the Western Harbor of Helsinki, and the nice detail of this house or passenger terminal is the Gauss curve on the roof. This form is the same what the calculations of the averages would give in mathematics. The mean would give that form, and sometimes I have thought, why the form of the average curve is in this house?

Of course, the  Gauss curve is the beautiful form, and the thing is that the politicians need that curve, when they are calculating so-called average person. And the second thing, what the Gauss curve tells for the specialists is some test too easy or too difficult. In the normal scenario is that the test results would follow the graph of the average values, which means that if the real results are different from the Gauss curve, that thing means the test was too difficult or too easy.

If the number of failed is rising, the test would be too easy. And if the number of excellent results would be raised, the test was too easy. But when we are thinking the averages, we must realize, that we should compare the results of all places, where the test has been made, and if there is only one anomaly, that would mean that there is something different in the group, or somebody has been given the answers to a certain group. The last one would be very clear, but the investigator should think, why those results have been given to a certain group?

How probability influences to team spirit?

How probability influences to team spirit?

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The role of the player is important for a team playing

Here I'm writing about the statistics and problems of the roles in the team, and here I must say that during this writing I was really concerning that nobody sees any connections to real situations. This is the writing about the illusion, what statistics are making, and that means that the example of two players is purely fictional. But in my personal opinion that is a good example, what statistics make to the team.

When we are thinking about statistics, and how they influence the team spirit, we are facing problems, that there are many things that are making a good team, and the thing is that we need stars. But at the same time, we need people, who are building the game. And the last one is a very difficult person because that person is invisible in the statistics.

If you do this, you might make somebody very sad

The role in the team is given by the coach and would you rather be the invisible player, who would work in the silent role than the player, who has the opportunity to make points? I think that the role of the last one is more fascinating than the first one, and the coach would offer that thing to players, who have potential. And the sad thing is that there must be people, who have the role number one. The teamwork is important, but would you like to be played, who will ever make points?

Sometimes I have heard the story about the two players, what can play every team sports and the form of the story depends on the person, who tells you about this story of two players. This story is fictional, but it is used in the training of directors of companies. And it goes like this. There are two players, who can play ice hockey, football or every other team sports. Player number one is good game builder, that person shares the game tool, what is a ball or hockey, depending on the teller.

Invisible players are important 

That inmate works in the middle area and shares the tool for other people, and the result is that that person is the second server in every each point, what the team makes. Player number two makes two points but loses the game tool in many critical places, and that causes the many points to the opponents. So which one is better of those two players? The result is that this first player in invisible in statistics and that causes the illusion that the player number two is better because those points are visible in the statistics. The thing is that invisible players are also very important actors in the field of teamwork.

But how we could tell somebody, that this person would ever get the glory and cheers for the good work? Those things are also part of the motivation of people. And the thing is that those "silent players" motivation must be also good, and there is one big question and that is, "how we can recruit those silent hard working people to the team in the next year". Nobody wants to go home after the match and look at the mirror when other players are in the celebration ceremonies. This is a very big thing in sports and other team works.