How to create software, what predicts the future?

How to create software, what predicts the future?

This program doesn't predict the future. It calculates probabilities, what is the synonym for things what measured in percent. It will calculate the relationships with the variables and that means that it would not predict the future. It gives the vision or model or tip, what would be the next action of the object, what is under the observation.

This kind of computer program bases the statistics. In this program, history is collecting similar cases, what want to predict, and those cases would store in the database. Then the database used to calculate the probability of the cases A and B. That means that the database consists the cases A and B, and those can be used to calculate the probability  ((A/B*100) or in the opposite case( B/A*100)) of those opportunities.

If we are making the database of the political elections the database is easy to make. There are only two possibilities, that the thing would be done or it will be denied, and that thing would cause the variables of the computer program and it's the database are easy to make.

And the data is easy to get for that kind of program, what mission is to calculate the two variables. But the thing is that the program would tell only the percents of a certain type of voting. In this kind of case, the database would need specific data of the cases, which are made in similar cases before. And that means that collecting the data is the problem.

But if we would want to make a database of the movement of some animal, we can use the turning direction as the variable. In this case, collecting the variable, but the problem is that there are very many variables in this kind of database. There are many types of turnings, what animal can make. There are gentle curves and steep turnings, and the speed, what animal used has the mean if we want to make the databases of that kind of thing.

So if we want to make a precise calculation we need precise data of the object, what behaviors we want to predict. The behavior of a thinking organism is the thing what makes all prediction very difficult if they do not consist only probabilities of the poker hands and other kinds of stable things. Or the makers of the probability calculations must start to think, that the people who give the playing cards for the calculation demonstrations are honest.

Probability is not exact information. It just helps to predict some things, by calculating the measured in percent change, that the animal would turn to some direct or some card is taken from the pack of cards? In the most common pack of cards is 52 cards. So if we want to calculate the possibility that the card, what rises from the pack is an ace, we must just say that probability for that case is 1/52*100=1.92307692308 (c. 1,92%)

Probability doesn't take in the count the thing, that somebody could manipulate the variable. This means that the person can take all the aces from the pack of cards. Or that somebody has been trained the animal turn in a certain way. This can destroy the calculations because of the data, what is stored in the database, what the program uses is somehow manipulated.

But when we are creating the probability of the turning direction of the animals, we must follow those objects very intensively. And when we are creating the trusted database of the turning direction of the animal, we must follow the turns in certain situations tens of thousands of times, and that helps to make the database, what the computer program can use for calculating the probability of the turning direction.

By using modern technology like GPS collar, which would also send the speed of an animal,  we can collect the database of the turning directions in certain situations. And then if there are connected two very small cameras the algorithm can find out in which situation the animal, what is under the observations makes some movement, the system, and human operators can find out are some movements reserved for some certain situations like escaping or attacking. And this thing would help to create the behavior model of some animals like Leopards or Tasmanian Devils.

The change of the worldview and how attitudes influence science and work of scientist

The change of the worldview and how attitudes influence science and work of scientist 

In the real-life, we must learn and grow to use authority and other kinds of things. Here we must say, that if people are not considered things carefully, we might decide what is far from the good, reasonable and even against mind. This is the major topics of the Game theory.

The thing that the individual would want always maximize their benefits, would cause that the way of using the power is against the benefits of regular people. And when powerful people are driving them benefits that would bring another thing in the front of our Eyes. That thing concerns about the people like Wilhelm Reichs and his "orgone box", as well as nuclear weapons.

The thing is that everything, what is offered must not buy, and that thing should teach in childhood, that it should not learn in adulthood. We have the right to use our mind and brains in that kind of things. And in the same way, we must realize that the way to see things is changing. In the early 20th century the attitudes were that human being is the master of nature.

Thoughts about Chernobyl, Fukushima, and tsunami

Here we must realize, that things like Fukushima accident have brought in front of the eyes of the people one little thing. Billions of dollars are spent in nuclear safety, but there is not an operating warning system against tsunami even in Japan. And the construction of those systems is not a very expensive operation.

Those systems can also use to collect data from the deep sea animals and nuclear submarines if we would connect the defense aspect to that warning equipment, what can be equipped also with low-light cameras, what can detect the mud clouds, as well as the movements of fishes. And microphones that can detect the sounds, what is coming from some graves and volcanic eruptions from the undersea volcanoes. But they can also detect things like submarines.

One of the most tragic thing in the Fukushima accident is that Japan is one of the nations, what could benefit the geothermal energy in large scale because volcanic heat is near the surface of that island.  And the area of Japan is similar to Iceland, and I wonder, why Japan has not benefited the geothermal energy in the same large scale as Iceland has been benefited.

And that was a thing, what ruled the way to think. In that time people believed things like occult very often, and even learned and civilized people took apart in medium rituals. And in that time there was nothing wrong with those things. But then we are forgetting that our knowledge of the world and universe has been grown, and that thing has brought new kind of threats in front of our eyes.

 The case of Chernobyl opened people's eyes for the thing, that even billions of men couldn't control the destroyed nuclear reactor. And then the safety systems were getting better, but then the tsunami destroyed another nuclear power plant, and that means that even the best safety systems cannot protect those power plants against earthquakes.

Those things brought human beings back to Earth and in the case of Fukushima, the warning system would warn the crew, that the reactor should shut down. And what that system could be. The line of buoys, where would be the pressure detector and GPS, which will tell the location of the buoy,

A pressure detector would be connected to cable, what goes to deep, and if that system detects that the cable is moving there could be Tsunami. The buoys can float freely, and they can send information about the sea current, and the GPS would locate the buoy, what can also collect data of the sea temperature and other things, what is interesting.

But of course, the pressure wall could travel in the bottom of the Ocean, and in that case, the pressure detector must be on the ocean floor. The thing is that the detector buoy can be connected to the floor sensor, what can operate as an anchor. The sensor could be quite small, and it can be equipped also with cameras and microphones as well as the seismic sensors.

Those systems can collect also data from deep-sea creatures and volcanic actions and smaller earthquakes from the floor of the ocean. The idea is to collect the data from the earthquakes what doesn't create tsunamis. And that collected data can be used for statistic, what can use to create formulas, what are calculating, how many smaller earthquakes happen before the tsunami is forming.

And those algorithms can also detect, how the type of small earthquakes like would they send more S-waves than P-waves, before the big earthquakes? And if we are thinking the use of similar systems to detect earthquakes, what are influenced to dry land, the collected data can network with other kinds of data, like how the behavior of animals is changing before the earthquake is starting.

Here we must remember that those seismic waves are causing the sound to the air. If we think that the seismic waves are causing a certain type of sound on the air before the destructive earthquake begin, that thing can cause changes in the animal's behavior. Maybe connecting data that is collected from seismic sensors to data, what is collected from the cameras can be used to make sharper predictions.

And even the behavior of animals don't change, that seismic data can be used along with the satellites, what is observing the form of waves by using radars. The changing form of the waves would happen because the type of seismic waves below the ocean floor is changing. Those systems are installed on existing satellites. The radar metering would work also over dry land and the pressure waves, what the earthquakes are causing might also be visible for lidar and radar systems. So this might make predictions of the earthquakes better. And those phenomena are destructive.